Will retail stocks be in the black?

samsonWelcome to another Thanksgiving week, markets obviously closed on Thursday, but the retail sector waits as usual for results on ‘Black Friday’. Will they be in the black?

And what about the overall market? Will it ever go down, or is it destined to defy gravity…?

The SPDR Retailers index (an ETF proxy for a basket of retail stocks) tells a tale:

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And this chart pretty much mirrors the overall market. People keep trying to shoot down this bull, but as I’ve been saying for weeks and weeks, barring a much overdue pullback, it’s up and away. A pullback towards $85 and a bounce from there would make a great trade potentially.

As I said last week, I’ve been expecting a healthy pullback, but the market doesn’t want to know. Maybe it can just work off its recent gains by trading sideways for a while. But you would be a suicidal fool to fight this- don’t even consider short positions here unless extremely short term.

Both the S+P and XRT are now temporarily overbought though. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a brief lull at least this week, but I don’t expect retailers to disappoint on Friday, regardless of what the market does.

Bottom line: however nonsensical the cause of this bull market (i.e. the government’s LCP4 program), it’s “game on” until we see clear signs to the contrary.

So until then, enjoy your Turkey, and be in the moment. Because what we see and feel in the moment is the key to unlocking markets and happiness.

Best,

Jim.

 

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